Chad, thank you for drawing attention to this. First, props for calling attention to a potential root cause that involved a policy that you helped put together. Not everyone would do that.
You make a pretty strong case for the loosening of standards being a predominant root cause. I found myself trying to compare charts between Race to the Top and non-Race to the Top neighboring states, among other theories, to no avail. The sheer similarity of charts between states is striking.
The one wondering I have as someone who was working on the state side of things at the time is the extent to which shifts in the prevailing culture around standardized testing, accountability, and common academic standards could be part of the explanation. The policy shift was in response to public outcry against testing and NCLB AYP targets that felt increasingly unattainable. The waiver requirements escalated efforts to tie teacher evaluations to test scores, which contributed to backlash and a further undercutting of public confidence in testing. The opt-out movement soon grew on the left and right, and progressive support for ed reform waned as views of testing and the achievement gap as racist grew in salience.
This possibility doesn’t diminish the point you’re making. Rather, it’s that both the policy itself and decreased public and educator confidence in testing/accountability/standards--some of which led to the policy shift and some of which was unleashed afterward--may be conspiring to reduce scores and widen gaps.
Thanks, Sam, I appreciate the thoughtful response. That storyline sounds very plausible to me. One pushback I heard was that the waivers didn't exist in a vacuum. It was things you mentioned like the opt-out movement in NY and the growing numbers of schools not meeting AYP, and Congress failing to act, that forced the hand of the Obama Administration. So it's hard to pin down precisely what caused what, or what would have happened in the *absence* of the NCLB waivers. My goal with this project was to get more people talking about what's going on and then hopefully coming up with ideas for how to get things going in the right direction.
This is, sadly, not shocking at all. I wonder how much is due to grade inflation and the “everyone gets a 50% for doing nothing” policies that are crashing through education. Now that kids can pass after doing 10% of there work, it seems less learning is happening.
Thanks for posting this. The main reaction I have is shaped by knowing that 4th grade reading in 2022 (in scale scores) returned to where they had been in 2003. You duplicate 2013 in your chart, which you probably shouldn't do, and it's unclear if the change on the Y-axis is from the baseline year (2003) or the previous year. Both of these features affect the conclusion you're presenting.
As I'm sure you remember, the research was clear that NCLB accountability had an effect on math achievement but not reading. (Was in Brian Jacob's work? I can't remember) So it makes sense that lifting accountability would hurt math but I'm less convinced that the data as displayed here shows reading has dipped on average.
Reading scores among the bottom 25 percent of 13-year-olds are lower than they have ever been since NAEP began testing in the 1970s. I'd welcome other theories to explain these trends, but the data are what they are: https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/ltt/2023/
Drop in the bottom 25% is a huge concern and the angle of the slope during the pandemic is even more troubling.
Could it be a mix of a) changes in individual focus & attention, b) teacher knowledge & capacity, c) reading on screens, d) no management for results (because there's no accountability or support)????
Chad, thank you for drawing attention to this. First, props for calling attention to a potential root cause that involved a policy that you helped put together. Not everyone would do that.
You make a pretty strong case for the loosening of standards being a predominant root cause. I found myself trying to compare charts between Race to the Top and non-Race to the Top neighboring states, among other theories, to no avail. The sheer similarity of charts between states is striking.
The one wondering I have as someone who was working on the state side of things at the time is the extent to which shifts in the prevailing culture around standardized testing, accountability, and common academic standards could be part of the explanation. The policy shift was in response to public outcry against testing and NCLB AYP targets that felt increasingly unattainable. The waiver requirements escalated efforts to tie teacher evaluations to test scores, which contributed to backlash and a further undercutting of public confidence in testing. The opt-out movement soon grew on the left and right, and progressive support for ed reform waned as views of testing and the achievement gap as racist grew in salience.
This possibility doesn’t diminish the point you’re making. Rather, it’s that both the policy itself and decreased public and educator confidence in testing/accountability/standards--some of which led to the policy shift and some of which was unleashed afterward--may be conspiring to reduce scores and widen gaps.
Thanks again for your thoughtful work!
Thanks, Sam, I appreciate the thoughtful response. That storyline sounds very plausible to me. One pushback I heard was that the waivers didn't exist in a vacuum. It was things you mentioned like the opt-out movement in NY and the growing numbers of schools not meeting AYP, and Congress failing to act, that forced the hand of the Obama Administration. So it's hard to pin down precisely what caused what, or what would have happened in the *absence* of the NCLB waivers. My goal with this project was to get more people talking about what's going on and then hopefully coming up with ideas for how to get things going in the right direction.
That makes sense. A goal worth pursuing. Keep it up.
This is, sadly, not shocking at all. I wonder how much is due to grade inflation and the “everyone gets a 50% for doing nothing” policies that are crashing through education. Now that kids can pass after doing 10% of there work, it seems less learning is happening.
Thanks for posting this. The main reaction I have is shaped by knowing that 4th grade reading in 2022 (in scale scores) returned to where they had been in 2003. You duplicate 2013 in your chart, which you probably shouldn't do, and it's unclear if the change on the Y-axis is from the baseline year (2003) or the previous year. Both of these features affect the conclusion you're presenting.
As I'm sure you remember, the research was clear that NCLB accountability had an effect on math achievement but not reading. (Was in Brian Jacob's work? I can't remember) So it makes sense that lifting accountability would hurt math but I'm less convinced that the data as displayed here shows reading has dipped on average.
Reading scores among the bottom 25 percent of 13-year-olds are lower than they have ever been since NAEP began testing in the 1970s. I'd welcome other theories to explain these trends, but the data are what they are: https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/ltt/2023/
Drop in the bottom 25% is a huge concern and the angle of the slope during the pandemic is even more troubling.
Could it be a mix of a) changes in individual focus & attention, b) teacher knowledge & capacity, c) reading on screens, d) no management for results (because there's no accountability or support)????