The Graduation Gap
Math proficiency rates lag far behind high school graduation rates
I’ve been working with The Collaborative for Student Success on a new project we’re calling The Graduation Gap. The idea is simple: we wanted to quantify the distance between a state’s high school graduation rate and its math proficiency rate.
Recent stories about grade inflation and college students struggling with basic math hint that these gaps exist. But when I started digging into the numbers, I was startled by just how large they were.
Consider just a few examples:
In Florida, the state reports a 90% graduation rate while just 44% of students scored at level 3 or above on the state’s end-of-course exams in Algebra and Geometry. The state warns that students performing at this level “may need additional support for the next grade/course.”
In Connecticut, 89% of high school students graduate within four years. Yet, just 31% of the state’s 11th graders met college-ready benchmarks on the SAT math portion. Rhode Island’s gap is even wider: 84 versus 23%.
In Washington, D.C., 86% of students graduate within four years, but only 15% of students met or exceeded the state’s expectations on their Algebra I, Algebra II, or Geometry exams.
Tennessee schools can boast of a 92% graduation rate while just 29% of high school students met the state’s expectations in Algebra and Geometry.
These “graduation gaps” are larger in math than they are in reading. They’re also larger in states using some externally validated benchmark exam like the SAT or ACT or the Smarter Balanced assessment. The gaps also tend to be even larger for low-income students, English Learners, and students with disabilities.
The solution is not to “fix the glitch” by simply lowering graduation rates to match proficiency. Nor is it to lower the bar for math proficiency, as a couple states have done (I’m looking at you, Texas and Virginia).
As I write for The Collaborative, “it’s a good thing for more kids to graduate from high school. But it’s disingenuous for states to continue to grant high school diplomas and send students off into the world as if they’re fully prepared for college or a career.”
These gaps should force policymakers to confront an uncomfortable question: what does a high school diploma actually certify?
If states continue awarding diplomas while large shares of students remain far below grade level in math, the credential itself loses meaning. That demands a more honest conversation about readiness, timely intervention, and what students need before they walk across the stage.
In the meantime, you can find your state’s graduation gap data here.
Reading List
Jim Cowen: A Growing Gap Between The Reality And Fiction Of High School Graduation Rates
Minnesota graduation rates at record high, but are students ready?
Derek Thompson: Against the Smartphone Theory of Everything
Matt Barnum: Access to special education services improved students’ academic trajectories
Reading Reimagined: A gap in advanced decoding skills underpins the literacy crisis for older readers
Michigan basketball coach Dusty May picked up lessons from educators like Doug Lemov and Carl Hendrick
As a district assessment guy, I get asked about this by the school board and community members pretty frequently. I don't know how WA's graduation pathway scheme compares to alternatives in other places, but we have plenty of other ways for students to demonstrate "proficiency" beyond the state test: https://sbe.wa.gov/our-work/graduation-requirements/graduation-pathway-options.
Certainly WA's pathways are not all equal in academic rigor, and yet they suggest some interesting things about student engagement on the assessments. In this year's senior class, for instance, 80 students did not meet standard on the state assessment but have already passed a dual credit math course and 24 scored high enough on the math sections of the SAT, ACT, or an AP test to meet the requirement. Those options all contain math beyond the state's 10th grade math test, which leaves us wondering if a nontrivial portion of the gap is explained by engagement. There's not much of a carrot on our state tests and no stick.
Thank you for drawing attention to this!