Is "The Hottest Job Market In a Generation" Over?

The public education labor market has definitely cooled off

Last week the Wall Street Journal ran a piece titled, "The Hottest Job Market in a Generation Is Over," with a subtitle that, “Pandemic-induced hiring spree wanes, leaving U.S. workers with more ordinary prospects.”

That article was focused on the private sector. But with the Bureau of Labor Statistics releasing its June data this week, I decided to look and see whether the same headlines could apply to public education. 

As you’ll see in the chart below, the labor market in public education has definitely cooled off. Through the first six months of 2024, job openings and hires are both down considerably from their peaks in 2022.

The rate of total employee separations, which includes people who quit, are laid off, or retire, is also lower this year than it was in 2023 and considerably less than the peak in 2022. This tracks with the state-level data on K-12 teacher turnover as well.

The education labor market is still not yet back to “ordinary” levels, especially in terms of job openings. I’m skeptical those vacancies will ever be filled, but it’s fair to say we are well past the peak of the “hottest job market in a generation” in public education.